Argus Geopolitical Intel

UK: Supreme court rules that "Proroguing" was illegal By Iain Fraser - Consultant Editor City of London Newsroom The Johnson Government was sent reeling yesterday after the UKs Highest Court ruled the proroguing of Parliament by Prime Minister Boris Johnson was indeed "unlawful". The historic judgement declared that the Prime Minister was wrong to suspend the current Westminster session. Johnson has returned early from the UN Summit in New York after meeting with US President Donald Trump to face multi-faceted calls for him to resign after the Judgement was announced. In a reaction statement after to the judgment he said that he "profoundly disagreed" with Tuesday's landmark ruling but he would respect it. However, Chancellor Sajid Javid has had the temerity to suggest that Johnson should prorogue parliament again in the coming days to "ensure he can secure a Queen’s Speech." The Supreme Court decision attracted wide-scale criticism primarily...

CLIMATE CHANGE: Thunberg tells UN 'If you choose to fail us we will never forgive you' By: Newsdesk Team City of London Newsroom Swedish uber -campaigner Greta Thunberg has made a impassioned plea to world leaders at the UN, accusing them of failing to act on climate change. She told some 60 world leaders gathered for a one-day symposium in New York yesterday [Monday, 24th September] organised by UN Secretary General António Guterres that her generation would "never forgive them" if they failed to combat climate change as she lambasted the assembly for their lack of action. "These numbers are too uncomfortable, and you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is," she said. "You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words," In an emotional speech, she said: "This is all wrong. I shouldn't be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean, yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you...

GULF CRISIS: Rouhani warns all foreign forces to stay away from the gulf By: Iain Fraser News & Technology Centre - Malaga, Spain Iranian president Rouhani has warned all foreign forces to "stay away" from the Gulf after US President Donald Trump announced he was deploying "several thousand" military personnel in a "defensive role" in response to last weeks attacks on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais on 14 September, which caused global oil prices to spike. Iran's thumbprint all over attacks Despite Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they had carried out the attacks, but both Riyadh and Washington say they have “undeniable evidence” of Tehran s guilt, something Tehran has strongly denied. A Saudi defence spokesman claimed that 25 drones and cruise missiles were used in the attack of two major oil installations and said they had been fired from the north, the direction of Iran. The Pentagon approved the deployment of a Patriot mis...

BREXIT: UK simply 'cannot meet' EU Brexit requirements By: Newsdesk Team City of London Newsroom The EU has set Britain a task it simply cannot meet in the allotted timescale. Speaking in Madrid yesterday [Thursday, 19 September] Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said "We are told the UK must provide legally operative text by the 31st October" "Yet the alternative to the backstop is not necessary until the end of the Implementation Period in December 2020. "And this will be shaped by the future relationship – which is still to be determined" "In short why risk crystallising an undesirable result this November, when both sides can work together – until December 2020. "In summary, the EU risks continuing to insist on a test that the UK cannot meet and that the UK Parliament has rejected three times." "Bluster, Bluff & Double Bluff!" The UK still hasn't meet EU requests to propose a concrete alternative to the Irish backstop...

ENERGY: Oil prices settle after extraordinarily turbulent week By: Newsdesk Team City of London Newsroom The price of Brent crude firmed slightly up 8 cents to $63.68 a barrel while U.S. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) rose by 12 cents to $58.23 after the market responded favorably to Saudi Arabia's´s pledge to restore full production by end-September at facilities knocked out in drone and missile attacks last weekend. "Analysts believe that the Saudi´s lost output of nearly 3.4 million barrels (bpd) after crude oil stock levels plunged by an estimated 10 million barrels." The steadying of nerves, after a 2% drop on Wednesday and a 14% plunge on Monday, came after Saudi Arabia set out the timeline to full operation and also said it had managed to restore supplies to customers at levels prior to the attacks by drawing from its oil inventories. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, has said the crippling attack on its oil sites was "unquestionably sponsored...

GULF CRISIS: Business as usual as Saudi's press ahead with Aramco IPO By: Newsdesk Team City of London Newsroom Saudi Aramco is pressing ahead with its listing plans this week despite the ongoing geopolitical fall-out rekindled by the recent attacks on the Abqaiq oil processing plant, the world's largest, and the Khurais oilfield. However, the big issue is simply "when will the output be restored ?" Market analysts have cast substantial doubt that Aramco can now meet its deadline and considered opinion is that the offering should at least be delayed to allow the damage to be repaired and output return to production. It could take months for Aramco, currently the world's biggest oil firm, to restore output after Saturday's attacks, which cut production by 5.7 million barrels per day, accounting for some 5% of the worlds oil supply. "Brent crude - the international traders benchmark touched off at $64" The state-owned oil group will meet local Saudi b...

SPECIAL REPORT: The Geopolitical Ramifications of the Saudi oilfield attacks By: Iain Fraser Málaga News Centre The US has clearly identified Iran as the state actor directly responsible for the drone attack that wiped out the Saudi-owned Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurai despite full responsibility having been asserted by Houthi rebels the Iran-aligned rebel army that has been fighting a Saudi-led military coalition in neighbouring Yemen for the past four years. News of the attacks jolted the financial markets, sending the oil price soaring with a barrel of Brent crude surging by almost 20% from $60 to $72. It eased back to $66 per barrel after US President, Donald Trump pledged to release some of America’s oil reserves, to make up the shortfall from Saudi Arabia although market analysts believe the oil price could rise higher if Aramco cannot bring supplies back online quickly, or if there is military action in the Gulf. Higher oil prices can drag on global growth. It pushe...