Argus Geopolitical Intel

ECONOMY: Geopoltical uncertainty as tensions impact IPO landscape GEO´ PR Channel Team European Press Centre Malaga Geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions heavily impacted the 2019 IPO landscape, pushing overall IPO activity down in terms of deals and proceeds. 2019 has registered 1,115 IPOs with proceeds of US$198b – a 19% fall in deal volume and a 4% decrease in proceeds compared with 2018. However, as US-China -EU trade tensions, concerns about economic growth and other geopolitical issues including Brexit and social unrest in Hong Kong – subside, a healthy increase in IPO activity is expected in 2020, particularly in the first half of the year, as markets are expected to become more volatile leading up to the US Presidential elections. While Asia-Pacific saw overall declines in deal volume (-1%) and proceeds (-8%) for 2019, it led the regions, with EMEIA second by both deal volume and proceeds and the Americas third in both measures. The technology sector continued to dominate...

ENERGY: Saudi Aramco - the world's most valuable listed company By Iain Fraser - Consultant Editor Filed via European Press Centre Malaga RIYADH Shares in Saudi Aramco surged to the maximum permitted 10% above their initial public offering (IPO) price on their Riyadh stock market debut closing in on the "ideal"  $2 trillion (€1.8tn) price tag set by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated!" - Mark Twain Last week the oil giant, which produces more than a tenth of global crude supply, raised $25.6bn (€23.09bn) as part of a plan by Saudi Arabia's royal family in privatising assets to move the kingdom away from its reliance on oil. The money raised from the sales will be used for non-energy investments. That easily makes it the world's most valuable listed company but still less than the €1.8tn ($2tn) sought by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman however it is still the biggest share sale to date, surpassing that o...

ECFR: Could Germany make a Geopolitical turn on financial policy? Syndicated by GEO´ Newsdesk Team European Press Centre Malaga Jonathan Hackenbroich, Research Felow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) Reports from Berlin A Geopolitical paradox has lain at the heart of Germany’s policy on the euro, and its own fiscal policy, for many years – and Berlin is now waking up to this tension. "Internationalising the euro is no longer the taboo it once was in Germany. Quietly, but indisputably, views in Berlin are starting to shift." Take fiscal policy first. Contrary to the assumptions of many commentators, especially at the height of the euro crisis, Germany’s approach to European financial and fiscal policy always had a strategic rationale behind it: the country’s hard line in the early years of this decade sought to make Europe economically competitive in the twenty-first century by forcing consolidation of out-of-control spending, and enabling quality growth ra...

DUBAI: Arab Strategy Forum to explore global Geopolitical landscape By Iain Fraser - Consultant Editor The Ritz-Carlton, Dubai  DUBAI: Dubai is all set to host the 12th edition of the annual Arab Strategy Forum (ASF 2019) at The Ritz-Carlton, Dubai International Financial Centre, today [Monday, 8th December, 2019] Under the patronage of Highness Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai with the event will run under the theme ‘Forecasting the Next Decade 2020-2030’ and will examine the world’s geopolitical landscape in the 10 years ahead. A series of panels and Q&A sessions are scheduled with some of the world’s leading Geopolitical glitterati including former US Vice President Dick Cheney and former Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, Within the context of current socio-political tensions, conflicts and issues, the forum will analyse their likely consequences to forecast what the world will look like by 2030 with...

CLIMATE CHANGE: COP25 - UN negotiators 'playing politics' amid global crisis By Iain Fraser - Consultant Editor Reporting from Madrid, Spain COP25 : The UN Climate Change Conference COP 25 which runs until 13 December 2019 was beset with problems before the conference even started with the incumbent Presidency under the stewardship of the Government of Chile having to cancel the original venue due to public dissent and disorder and having to accept Spains last minute offer to host the event on their behalf inb Madrid. The conference was designed to take the next crucial steps in the UN climate change process. Following agreement on the implementation guidelines of the Paris Agreement at COP 24 in Poland last year, a key objective is to complete several matters with respect to the full operationalization of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. "There is frustration that countries are focussing on trying to get advantages in the talks, instead of working together to increase ...

FREE PRESS: Russia designates journalists and bloggers 'foreign agents' under new law By Iain Fraser - Geopolitical Editor & Journalist European Press Centre Málaga Russia can designate independent journalists and bloggers as "foreign agents" after amending a controversial law was steered through parliament's lower house - the Duma - by MPs Leonid Levin and Pyotr Tolstoy and signed off by President Vladimir Putin last Monday.[Monday, 2 December, 2019] The "foreign agent" label already applies to certain media organisations and NGOs which engage in politics and receive funding from abroad. Formerly the designation "Foreign agent" was a Soviet-era KGB term of abuse for political dissidents and indeed the anti-corruption organisation of anti-Putin campaigner Alexei Navalny has already been declared a "foreign agent". The amended law has naturally been condemned by the EU, Amnesty International and the OSCE international security body...

CYBERCRIME: Spying tools website taken down afterm UK raids By GEO´ Newsdesk Team European Press Centre Málaga The BBC Reports that a website selling hacking tools that let attackers take over victims' computers has been closed down after an international investigation. Police searched more than 80 properties across the world to find those selling the tools. Police said 14 people had been arrested worldwide in connection with the sale and use of the software "They were also able to trace people who had bought the software and charge them with computer misuse offences..." The UK's National Crime Agency (NCA) said 14,500 people had bought spying tools from the Imminent Methods site so the problem is far from over. Imminent Methods sold a tool known as the Imminent Monitor Remote Access Trojan (Imrat) for about $25 (£19). It gave the attacker full access to an infected device, letting them steal data, monitor what the victim was doing and even access their webcam. The NC...

REUTERS: Russia accuses U.S. of deliberately delaying visas for its officials Syndicated by Newsdesk Team European Press Centre Malaga REUTERS reports today that Russia has accused Washington of deliberately delaying the issuing of visas for Russian officials traveling to the United States, something it said could further damage already strained relations. The U.S. embassy in Moscow failed to issue visas to a Russian delegation of treasury officials who were due to attend an international audit management conference in Washington yesterday [3rd December 2019] the Russian embassy in Washington said late on Tuesday. The U.S. embassy did not immediately respond to the allegations. But it has in the past said its consular section has been understaffed since Moscow ordered it to sharply cut its staff in Russia in 2017 during a major diplomatic row. The Russian embassy said it did not believe U.S. visas for Russian citizens were being held up because of a shortage of staff. “We are concerne...

LABOURGATE: REUTERS - Leak of papers before UK election raises 'spectre of foreign influence'  By Jack Stubbs/Reuters via European Press Centre Málaga REUTERS Reports that the leak and distribution of classified British-U.S. trade documents online resembles a disinformation campaign uncovered this year that originated in Russia, according to experts who say it could signal foreign interference in Britain’s election. The opposition Labour Party said on Nov. 27 the classified documents, which first appeared online on Oct. 21, showed the ruling Conservatives were plotting to offer up the state-run National Health Service for sale in trade talks with Washington. The NHS is much loved by Britons and has become an important issue in the Dec. 12 election, in which Labour trails the Conservatives despite cutting its lead in some opinion polls. Researchers at Britain’s Oxford and Cardiff universities, the Atlantic Council thinktank and social media analytics firm Graphika said the way t...

NATO Summit: Johnson calls for NATO unity as alliance turns 70 By Newsdesk Team - Defence Technology Matters via European Press Centre Malaga UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to call for Nato unity amid growing tensions within the military bloc at a summit to mark the founding of the 29-member defence alliance 70 years ago gets under way near London today [Tuesday, 03 December 2019]. Nato members pledge to come to the aid of one another should any of the allies come under attack. However the beano is being totally overshadowed by a bitter row between France and Turkey and a continuing debate over money. Tensions have been growing since the election of President Trump, who has repeatedly complained that Europe's Nato members are not contributing enough to the alliance. Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron described Nato as "brain dead", saying alliance members were no longer co-operating on a range of key issues. US President Donald Trump, who has repeat...

CLIMATE CHANGE: COP25 talks open as 'point of no return' looms into sight UN Climate Control Conference Madrid By: Iain Fraser - Consultant Editor Aboard the AVE Renfe - Malaga to Madrid Bullet Train I have made a concerted effort to ensure that I attend COP25 - The UN Climate Control Conference being hosted at IFEMA - The Feria de Madrid Spain which thanks to this superfast, highly efficient Renfe AVE "Bullet Train" I will be arriving in Madrid at 12.18hrs CET. The 25th COP [the Conference of the Parties] promises to be radical with Political leaders and climate diplomats are meeting for two weeks of talks amid a growing sense of crisis. Some 50 world leaders are expected to attend with the notable absence of the delusional US President who has obviously snubbed the event preferring to adopt the ostrich protocol - but then he was never very bright! However, the US will be "represented" by Trump´s bête noire Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pel...